:Product: 20040721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 649 (S10W41)
produced a C6.6/1f at 21/0034 UTC.  Region 652 produced several
C-class flares, including a C8.9/1f at 21/0521 UTC.  Region 649 was
stable in size and decreased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma
configuration.  Region 652 increased signficantly in size over the
period, to 2010 millionths in white light, although most of the
growth was observed in the trailing penumbral field.  The region's
magnetic class continues to be beta-gamma-delta, but all of the
magnetic complexity is in the northern part of the leader spots.  No
new regions were numbered on the visible disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate.  However, there is still a possibility for
major flare activity from Region 652.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled tomorrow (22 July), with active to
minor storm conditions expected on day two (23 July) from the
possible effects of a CME observed on LASCO imagery on 20 July. 
Geomagnetic activity should return to quiet to unsettled conditions
on 24 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 172
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul  175/170/160
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 101
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/010-025/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/20
Minor storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/40/30
Minor storm           15/30/20
Major-severe storm    10/20/10