:Product: 20040723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 652 (N08W10)
produced a C1.0 flare at 23/1609 UTC, which would not be noteworthy
except that a full-halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery at the
same time, as well as a Type II radio sweep with a speed of 710
km/s.  Analysis of SXI and EIT imagery indicate that the flare and
CME are probably associated.  Region 652 also produced three M-class
flares over the period, the largest an M2.2/Sf at 23/1728 UTC.  A
CME with a plane-of-sky speed of 700 km/s associated with this flare
was observed on LASCO imagery.  Region 652 maintains its large size
and magnetic complexity.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 652 may still produce major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels from
the continued effects of CME transient activity.  After maintaining
a mostly southward orientation for over 24 hours, Bz rotated
northward at 1600 UTC.  ACE solar wind speed has steadily declined
to 500 km/s.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active tomorrow (24 July) as the current
activity subsides.  A CME observed on 22 July may produce active and
isolated minor storm conditions on 24 July.  Activity should
decrease to unsettled levels on 25 July.   CME activity associated
with today's C1 and M2 flares will likely impact Earth's geomagnetic
field on 26 July, with active to minor storm conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 165
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  160/160/150
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 104
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  040/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  020/025-015/015-025/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/40
Minor storm           20/10/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/45
Minor storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    15/10/15