:Product: 20040724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 652 (N08W21)
produced three M-class flares, the largest an M2.5/Sf flare at
24/1850 UTC.  Three CMEs were observed on LASCO imagery at about
0230 UTC, although none were Earthward directed.  A CME directed to
the east was most likely associated with activity beyond the east
limb, and a CME projected to the northwest was most likely
associated with an erupting filament close to the west limb at N30. 
A third CME erupting towards the southwest may have been associated
with C-class flare that occurred in Region 652.  Region 652
continues to decay steadily in size to 1610 millionths in white
light, and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.  Region 652 may produce major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.  A
minor shock was observed at ACE at approximately 0600 UTC, and minor
storming occurred shortly afterwards.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 25 July.  CME activity observed
yesterday (23 July) may produce active and isolated minor storm
conditions on 26 July.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 147
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul  150/130/130
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 098
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  021/047
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  015/015-022/025-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/45/30
Minor storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/15/10