:Product: 20040729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels today.  Region
652 (N08W89) produced the largest event of the period, an M2 x-ray
flare that occurred at 29/0006Z.  Although, the most significant
event during the period was a long duration C2 x-ray flare.  There
was an associated partial halo CME with this flare that may result
in an glancing blow from the anticipated transient passage.  The
beta-gamma magnetic structure remains unchanged as Region 652
rotates beyond the solar west limb.  Region 654 (N08W02) was
quiescent today and is the only other spotted active region on the
visible disk.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to moderate levels.  Region 652 may yet produce another
M-class flare before rotating completely beyond the solar west limb
through day one (30 July).  Expect activity to decrease to very low
to low levels by 31 July.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels throughout the
period.  The elevated conditions are expected due to the anticipated
shock passages from the CME activity seen on LASCO imagery from the
long duration C4 that occurred early yesterday and the C2 that
occurred today.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    40/05/01
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 100
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug  095/090/085
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  020/030-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10