:Product: 20040730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to low levels today.  Old
Region 652 (N08, L=348) has rotated beyond the western solar limb
although it was the source for the C-class flare activity seen
earlier in the period.  Region 654 (N08W15) went unchanged in spot
area and magnetic complexity.  Several lesser B-class flares were
produced from this region today.  Region 655 (S09E71) was numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 654 is capable of producing C-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A shock
passage was observed at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 30/2030Z
and is believed to be in response to the very long duration C4 x-ray
flare that occurred at 28/0609Z.  A sudden impulse of 25 nT occurred
at the Boulder magnetometer at 30/2115Z.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels again
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  A transient passage
may occur late on 31 July into 1 Aug allowing for isolated active
conditions resulting from the long duration C2 x-ray flare that
occurred on 29 July.  Quiet levels are expected to return late on 1
Aug.
III.  Event Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    20/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 089
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  012/015-010/015-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01