:Product: 20040801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. 
Region 654 (N08W41) produced several lower level B-class flares
today with continued decay to the groups total spot area.  Region
655 (S09E44) also produced lesser B-class flares and showed a slight
increase in spot cluster area measurements.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 655 has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  A shock
passage was observed by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
01/0130Z.  This transient is believed to be the result of the long
duration C2 x-ray flare that peaked at 29/1304Z from Region 652
while it was exiting the west limb.  The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field went south for a brief period of time
allowing for observed active periods between 01/0130 and 0300Z.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased
to high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Aug 083
Predicted   02 Aug-04 Aug  080/085/085
90 Day Mean        01 Aug 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug  005/008-005/008-004/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01