:Product: 20040803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 06 Aug.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Aug 088
Predicted   04 Aug-06 Aug  085/090/090
90 Day Mean        03 Aug 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug  003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug  005/006-004/006-004/006
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01