:Product: 20040804RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been at very low levels.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 06 Aug.  Beginning on 07 Aug,
periods of active levels are likely with a slight chance for an
isolated active event due to the influence of a high speed solar
wind stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Aug 085
Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        04 Aug 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  004/008-004/008-008/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug-07 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/30
Minor storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05