:Product: 20040805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 655 (S09W09)
has decreased in both sunspot count and white light coverage in the
past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods are
possible on 07-08 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Aug 089
Predicted   06 Aug-08 Aug  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        05 Aug 105
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug  005/008-010/015-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05