:Product: 20040807RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  The daily consensus
for Region 655 (S10W38) and 656 (S13E58) have them both exceeding
200 millionths of white light coverage with a magnetic beta
configuration.  These regions remain fairly stable only producing
low level B-class flares.  A new region was numbered today as Region
658 (S06E50).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.  Regions 655 and 656 could produce an isolated C-class
event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm conditions observed at 07/0900 UTC.  Solar
wind speed has increased from around 340 km/s yesterday to above 460
km/s today and the IMF Bz has fluctuated southward as far as -14 nT.
The conditions seem to be influenced by a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active
conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Aug 095
Predicted   08 Aug-10 Aug  100/100/105
90 Day Mean        07 Aug 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug-10 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01