:Product: 20040808RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Aug 08 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 656 (S12E45) has produced several events through the last 24 hours including a long duration B5 flare at 08/1433 UT and a C2/Sf flare at 08/1724 UTC. The region has shown continued growth in both white light coverage and sunspot count and has developed a magnetic beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A full halo CME was observed today in the SOHO/LASCO imagery. The event was first seen in C2 at 08/0854 UTC. An analysis of the data indicate that this was a backside event and not directed toward Earth. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 656 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speeds that started out the last 24 hour period at above 480 km/s has gradually declined to around 400 km/s. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions. III. Event Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug Class M 15/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Aug 105 Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 08 Aug 106 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 011/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 010/015-010/010-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01