:Product: 20040809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E31). This region grew
rapidly during the past 24 hours and has formed into a compact
configuration that includes a magnetic delta configuration and also
is exhibiting magnetic shear along part of the inversion line. The
other two numbered regions on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Additional C-class flares are expected from Region 656.
There is a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from this
region over the next three days. There is a slight chance for a
major flare from this region as well, especially if the current
growth trend continues.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled during the past
24 hours, with the exception of an active period from 0600-0900 UTC.
The enhanced activity corresponded to a solar sector boundary
crossing observed in the solar wind data.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days
(10-12 August), with a slight chance for isolated active periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Aug 114
Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  115/120/125
90 Day Mean        09 Aug 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  010/010-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05