:Product: 20040810RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional C-class flares from Region 656 (S12E18). Although the
region is still growing the rate of growth has decreased
significantly and the rate of flare activity has also decreased. The
region continues to have a delta magnetic class but shearing in the
region appears to have decreased slightly. New Region 659 (N18E59)
was assigned today and is a small, stable H-type group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare
from Region 656. There may be an increase in background and activity
levels on 12 August with the return of old Region 652 (N08, L=348)
which produced numerous M-class events on its previous disk transit.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with a minor
storm interval at some locations from 1500-1800 UTC. Solar wind
observations show an increase of velocity and temperature, and a
decrease of density, consistent with the onset of a high-speed
coronal hole solar wind stream.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next three days (11-13 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 121
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 106
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  012/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05