:Product: 20040811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares, predominantly from Region 656 (S13E03). The
largest event of the day was a C7/Sf from 656 at 1141 UTC. Region
656 continues to grow and is nearly 1000 millionths in area. The
group continues to have a magnetic delta classification. A slow,
faint CME was seen in LASCO off the south limb yesterday, beginning
at about 10/1854 UTC in C2 imagery. The CME was associated with
surge activity and a subsequent EIT wave that was observed just
north of 656 and east of central meridian.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-flares should continue and there is a good chance for
an isolated M-class event during the next three days. There is also
a slight chance for a major flare event from 656. Background levels
are expected to increase tomorrow with the return of old Region 652
(N07, Carrington = 347).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data show the continuing influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the next two days (12-13 August). Conditions are
expected to be unsettled to active on the 3rd day (14 August) with
the arrival of weak transient flow from yesterday's CME.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Aug 131
Predicted   12 Aug-14 Aug  140/145/150
90 Day Mean        11 Aug 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug  012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug  010/010-010/010-015/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05