:Product: 20040812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 656 (S13W09)
produced one M-class flare during the past 24 hours, an M1/1f at
0505UTC. The remainder of the day's activity consisted of occasional
C-class flares from Region 656. This region continues to grow and
has an area of about 1320 millionths. It also continues to be
magnetically complex and is classified as a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Old Region 652 quietly rotated around the
east limb and was assigned as Region 661 (N08E84).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, and Region 656 is expected to dominate activity. There is
a chance during the next three days for an isolated major flare
event from Region 656.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data shows
the continuing presence of a high speed coronal hole stream, but the
influence on geomagnetic activity is weakening as the velocity is
declining. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for tomorrow (13 August). Conditions
are expected to increase slightly to unsettled to active on the 2nd
day (14 August) with the arrival of a slow CME that was observed
late on 10 August. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled for
the third day (15 August).
III.  Event Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Aug 147
Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug  150/155/165
90 Day Mean        12 Aug 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  010/010-015/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           15/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05