:Product: 20040813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 13 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to high levels today.  Region
656 (S13W22) produced an X1/1n major flare at 13/1812Z with an
associated 180 sfu Tenflare.  Imagery from the LASCO instrument
remains insufficient at the time of this writing for determination
of CME activity.  Region 656 also produced an M1/Sf flare that 
occurred at 13/0729 and an M1/1f event that occurred at 13/1209Z, 
neither of these flares had any significant CME activity observed on 
LASCO imagery.  Region 656 continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification and did show a very slight growth in sunspot
area during the period.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Region 656 remains very capable of
producing further isolated major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 14 August with the
anticipated arrival of a CME from the activity that was observed
late on 10 August.  Isolated active periods may be possible on day
two (15 August) at higher latitudes due to lingering effects from
the expected shock.  A return to predominantly quiet conditions is
expected for day three in lieu of further imagery from SOHO/LASCO.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Aug 149
Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  155/155/150
90 Day Mean        13 Aug 107
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug  006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  012/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01