:Product: 20040814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at high levels today.  Region
656 (S13W35) produced multiple M-class flares today.  There were two
major flares reported during the period, an M7/2n event at 14/0544Z
and an M5/2n occurring at 14/1343Z.  SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts
several CMEs that all appear to have a solar westward component. 
This region continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
structure with some decay in the sunspot area seen over the period. 
The remaining active regions were quiescent throughout the period. 
No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Region 656 remains capable of producing
further major flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A weak shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at approximately 13/2200Z that is presumed
to be from the faint halo CME that was observed late on 10 August. 
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.  Isolated active conditions are possible late on 16 and
through 17 August due to glancing blows from the CME activity seen
today.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 149
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  150/145/145
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  010/010-012/015-012/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/25
Minor storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05