:Product: 20040815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was at high levels today.  Region 656
(S13W48) produced multiple M-class flares again today, the largest
was an M9/1n that occurred at 15/1241Z that had an associated faint
CME seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from the southwest solar
quadrant.  This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed.  Sun spot
area showed a slight increase from yesterday and the
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure has undergone little change over
the past 24 hours.  The remainder of the active regions were
quiescent throughout the period.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.  Region 656 remains capable of producing
isolated major flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.  Isolated
active conditions may occur throughout the period due to the
potential of weak flanking blows from the CME activity observed over
the past couple days.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Aug 139
Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug  135/135/130
90 Day Mean        15 Aug 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01