:Product: 20040816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to moderate levels today. 
Region 656 (S13W61) was limited to a single M-class flare during the
period, an M1/Sf that occurred at 16/0347Z.  A long duration C9/Sf
event occurred at 16/1338Z which produced a very faint CME that does
not appear to be Earth-directed.  Region 656 underwent little change
in spot area.  The region remains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
complex although the delta structure in the intermediate spot
cluster has weakened over the period.  Region 661 (N07E34) was
quiescent throughout the period but is worthy of note due to the
small delta magnetic structure that has developed in the southern
most part of the dominant trailing spot.  A partial halo CME was
observed mostly on the northwest solar limb which appears to be a
backsided event.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels through 17 and 18 August.  Activity should
begin to diminish on 19 August as Region 656 transits the western
solar limb.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.  A slight chance for
isolated active conditions throughout the period exists due to the
weak CME activity seen during the past several days.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
Class M    75/75/50
Class X    20/20/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Aug 134
Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug  130/125/115
90 Day Mean        16 Aug 108
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug  003/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  008/008-008/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug-19 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01