:Product: 20040819RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 656
(S13,L=87) continues to produce M-class flares from the west limb:
an M3.0 at 19/0701 UTC and an M2.1 at 1351 UTC.  Region 661 (N09W06)
is stable in size and magnetic conplexity, maintaining its
beta-gamma configuration.  A CME was observed on LASCO imagery from
the X1.8 flare reported yesterday, although the CME was not directed
toward Earth.  New Region 663 (N08E75) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Lingering flare activity from Region 656 is still
possible for another day.  Region 661 is capable of producing
isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, with
isolated active conditions possible on 20 August.
III.  Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M    30/20/20
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Aug 121
Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  115/110/105
90 Day Mean        19 Aug 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug  008/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  008/015-005/012-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01