:Product: 20040821RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Occasional brightness
fluctuations were noted, but no flare activity occurred. Region 661
(N07W33) contains minor magnetic complexity and white light area
coverage of over 450 millionths, but has been stable for the past 48
hours. Region 663 (N11E52) has rotated fully into view as an
elongated beta spot group with some minor magnetic mixing. Region
664 (S10E25) exhibited considerable growth this period and also
displays some minor mixing. No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a slightly elevated solar
wind speed (near 500 km/s) and predominantly southward IMF Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 120
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug  120/120/120
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  020/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  015/015-012/015-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01