:Product: 20040822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity continues to be very low. Minor B-class
activity was observed in Region 661 (N06W47). This region, which
still maintains over 400 millionths of white light area coverage, is
in a slow decay phase. With the exception of Region 665 (N04W15),
which was numbered today, all active regions were stable or in
decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a small chance of a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a slightly elevated solar
wind speed and a predominantly southward IMF Bz. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Aug 115
Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        22 Aug 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug  015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  012/015-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug-25 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01