:Product: 20040823RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 23 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. B-class flares were
observed in Regions 661 (N07W60), 663 (N11E26), and 664 (S11W03).
Regions 661 and 664 are simple beta groups that exhibited little
change over the past 24 hours. Region 663, in a beta-gamma
configuration, is more complex, but has decayed slightly this
period. Remaining active regions were stable or in decay.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a small chance for a C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The IMF Bz was
predominantly southward; however, solar wind speed has declined to
near 400 km/s . The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods
are possible at high latitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Aug 110
Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  110/105/095
90 Day Mean        23 Aug 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  010/015-008/012-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01