:Product: 20040824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 25 0050 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. A bright surge associated
with a B6 x-ray event was observed near S07 on the east limb at
24/1352Z. A CME was also observed in association with this event.
The likely source of this activity was old Region 655 (S09, L=177),
which is due to rotate into view tomorrow. All active regions on the
visible disk were stable or in decay. No other significant activity
was noted.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The new region rotating into view on the southeast limb
may boost activity levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M    05/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Aug 105
Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug  105/105/105
90 Day Mean        24 Aug 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  005/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01