:Product: 20040825RSGA.txt :Issued: 2004 Aug 25 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2004 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 661 (N06W86) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 24/2112Z. This region underwent little change today and has begun to exit the west solar limb. Region 662 (N14W67) produced a B5 x-ray flare that had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 800 km/s. A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery shortly following this event which does not appear to be Earth directed. There was some sporadic activity seen on the southeast solar limb today that is expected to be associated with the return of old Region 655. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug Class M 01/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Aug 100 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 110 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 006/008-006/008-006/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01