:Product: 20040828RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at very low levels.  Flare
production was limited to very minor impulsive B-class event
activity again today.  Region 663 (N10W41) showed little change
during the period and remains a magnetically simplistic beta
complex.  Region 664 (S11W73) went unchanged and continues to
exhibit Hsx alpha spot group characteristics.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.  The active spotted regions are magnetically simple
with limited potential for significant flare production being
evident.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
There was an isolated active period that occurred between 28/0600
and 0900Z in response to southward Bz oscillations in the
interplanetary magnetic field.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Aug 087
Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug  085/085/090
90 Day Mean        28 Aug 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  004/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug  006/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  004/008-004/005-004/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug-31 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
COMMENTS:  The ACE spacecraft orbit will 
bring ACE to its closest approach with the Sun 
on August 30, 2004. During that time possible 
solar radio noise may interfere with spacecraft 
telemetry resulting in the loss of real time 
solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and particle 
data.