:Product: 20040829RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity remains at very low levels.  Region 663
(N07W59) has undergone little change, and remains a magnetically
simple Beta-class region.  Region 666 (N16E38) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels through 01 Sep.  Chances for some C-class and
greater activity will increase on 01 Sep with the return of Region
656.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels through 01 Sep.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M    05/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Aug 086
Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  085/090/110
90 Day Mean        29 Aug 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  006/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug  004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  004/005-004/005-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
VII.  COMMENTS
The ACE spacecraft orbit will bring ACE to its closest approach 
with the Sun on August 30, 2004. During that time possible solar 
radio noise may interfere with spacecraft telemetry resulting in 
the loss of real time solar wind plasma, magnetic field, and 
particle data.