:Product: 20040831RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Aug 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 31/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  An M1.4 flare was
observed from Region 663 at 31/0538Z.  A Type II radio sweep with a
speed of 700 km/s, as well as a CME off the west limb, were observed
in association with the M flare.  No new regions were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.  Region 663 may still produce C class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet to major storm levels.  Bz at
ACE turned northward at 2230Z resulting in isolated major storming
early on 31 August.  Unsettled to active conditions prevailed for
the rest of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
A glancing blow from the CME shock associated with today's M flare
may cause isolated active conditions on 3 September.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Aug 088
Predicted   01 Sep-03 Sep  100/110/110
90 Day Mean        31 Aug 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug  027/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug  024/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep  010/020-005/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           15/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/10