:Product: 20040901RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A faint full-halo
CME was observed on LASCO imagery beginning at 1255Z, although the
CME is most likely backsided.  New Region 667 (S09E76) is rotating
onto the visible disk from the east limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  On 03 September, isolated active
conditions are possible due to a glancing blow from a CME shock
associated with the M1.4 flare from Region 663 on the 31 August at
0538Z.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 090
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep  100/110/110
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  014/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  005/015-015/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01