:Product: 20040902RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A long duration B6.0
flare occurred at 02/0256 UTC which appears to be associated with
activity around the NW limb.  Region 667 (S10E62)  has an alpha
magnetic configuration and has grown slightly in white light
coverage.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated periods of active
levels are possible on 03 September due to a CME observed on 31
August.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Sep 094
Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        02 Sep 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01