:Product: 20040903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  The SOHO/LASCO
imagery observed several CME's during the last 24 hours.  There were
two halo events associated with this activity and an analysis
indicates both appear to be backside events.  New region 668
(S11W34) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Sep 097
Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  100/105/110
90 Day Mean        03 Sep 109
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01