:Product: 20040904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A halo CME was
observed on the SOHO/LASCO imagery today.  The event does not appear
to be directed toward Earth.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Sep 099
Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep  100/105/105
90 Day Mean        04 Sep 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05