:Product: 20040905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  A 9 degree long
filament disappeared from N22W30 sometime after 04/1625 UTC and
before 05/0536 UTC.  The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed filament
movement on EIT at 05/0512 UTC and a CME on C2 around 05/0654 UTC,
which seems to correspond with this event disappearance.  At this
time the event appears to be directed away from the Earth.  Two new
regions were numbered today as Region 669 (S06E35) and Region 670
(S14E34).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The solar wind has
undergone some changes in the past 24 hours.  Shortly before 05/0600
UTC the IMF Bz started southward oscillations and a gradual increase
in velocity and temperature began.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Sep 103
Predicted   06 Sep-08 Sep  105/110/110
90 Day Mean        05 Sep 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep  008/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01