:Product: 20040907RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C1.1 flare occurred at 0738
UTC from Region 669 (S06E06).  A long duration C2.8 flare occurred
with a maximum at 1529 UTC.  The source was observed in SXI on the
East limb at N04, apparently associated with a region behind the
visible disk.  A backsided partial halo CME was associated with this
flare.  Region 671 (S11W42) has grown in area but has not produced
any flares in the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for isolated M-Class flares.  Background levels
are expected to gradually increase due to a region rotating onto the
visible disk.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels.  Solar wind
data has indicated the presence of a coronal hole stream with
velocities ranging from 410-470 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days (08-10
September).  There is a slight chance of some persistent active
levels during the next 24 hours.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Sep 119
Predicted   08 Sep-10 Sep  125/130/135
90 Day Mean        07 Sep 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep  016/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep  010/010-008/010-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           20/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05