:Product: 20040908RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  A C1.5 flare occurred at
0110 UTC and was observed by SXI on the east limb at N05.  A C1.0
flare was observed at 2002 UTC from Region 669 (S05W09). Region 669
also produced a B9.0 at 0349 UTC and a B9.7 at 1458 UTC.  A 20
degree filament disappeared from N01W35 between 1324 UTC and 1519
UTC, but there was no obvious CME that could be associated.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
There is a slight chance for an isolated M class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled with an isolated
active period from 0600 to 0900 UTC.  Solar wind data from ACE has
indicated a decrease in solar wind speed during the past 24 hours
from approximately 440 km/s to 380 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (09-11
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 125
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep  130/135/140
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  006/010-006/008-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05