:Product: 20040909RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 672
(N05E73) produced two C class flares, a C1.2 at 2222 UTC, and a long
duration C3.2, with a maximum at 0601 UTC.  A limb CME was
associated with the C3.2 event, but was not Earth directed.  Region
671 (S09W68) produced a B9.3 flare at 1800 UTC, and continues to
grow.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for an isolated M class flare, particularly
from Region 672.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12
September).
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M    20/20/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Sep 131
Predicted   10 Sep-12 Sep  135/140/140
90 Day Mean        09 Sep 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep  005/005-005/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05