:Product: 20040910RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels today.  Region 672
(N05E60) produced multiple C-class flares today, the largest was a
C6 x-ray flare that occurred at 10/1613Z.  Region 671 (S09W81) was
quiescent today and is approaching the western solar limb.  Region
669 (S06W78) was also quiet today and exhibited slight growth in the
intermediate cluster of spots during the period.  No new regions
were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare,
particularly from Region 672.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 130
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep  120/125/125
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  005/008-008/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/05