:Product: 20040911RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity remained at low levels today.  Region
672 (N05E47) produced several B and C-class flares, the largest was
a C1.6 x-ray event that occurred at 11/0006Z.  This region has
become slightly more magnetically complicated with gamma structures
now visible in the trailing portion of region.  Regions 667 (S11W58)
and 669 (S06W51) were quiescent today and remain simply structured
magnetic beta groups.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low levels throughout the period.  There is a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 672.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 116
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep  115/110/100
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  001/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  001/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  003/008-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01