:Product: 20040914RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 14 2300 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 672 (N05E10)
produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M1.5/1f at 0930
UTC.  A Type II radio sweep (1018 km/s) and a Type IV sweep was
observed in association with the M flare.  An associated CME most
likely occurred, but could not be confirmed due to a LASCO data gap.
Surging and plage fluctuations were observed in Region 672, which is
now in a beta-delta magnetic configuration.  No new regions were
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 672 is expected to produce C- class flares, and
may produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active.  Lingering
effects of the CME which arrived on 13 September led to persistent
active conditions early in the period.  The greater than 10 MeV
protons have been steadily delining since reaching a maximum of 273
pfu at 14/0005 UTC, and are currently at 17 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 September as the effects of
the current disturbance subside.  A CME originating from the M1.5
flare observed today may interact with Earth's geomagnetic field
beginning midday on 16 September, and lasting through 17 September. 
Predominantly active conditions, with isolated minor or major
storming, is likely on 16-17 September as a result of this CME
arrival.  The greater than 10 MeV Proton levels may increase as well
in association with a CME shock arrival.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     99/10/10
PCAF       Yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Sep 115
Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  115/115/110
90 Day Mean        14 Sep 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep  020/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  015/015-020/025-020/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep-17 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/40
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/05