:Product: 20040915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 672 (N05W03) is a
magnetic complex beta-delta region but has neither shown any real
growth nor decay since 14 Sep.  Region 673 (S13E72) was newly
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low.  There is a chance for isolated M-level flare activity from
Region 672 (N05W03).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  A greater
than 10 MeV proton flux event which began on 13 Sep at 2205Z fell
below threshold on 15 Sep at 1015Z.  The event reached a maximum of
237 PFU on 14 Sep at 0005Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels from 16 Sep through
18 Sep due to the arrival of a weak coronal mass ejection that
occurred on 14 Sep at 0930Z.  During the arrival of a shock driven
by this event, there is a small chance that the greater than 10 MeV
proton levels will be enhanced.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       Green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 110
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  115/115/115
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  017/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  015/025-015/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/10