:Product: 20040916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity has been very low.  Region 672 (N05W17)
produced a B8.7/Sf at 16/0030 UTC and a B8.4/Sf at 0345 UTC.  Region
672 has decayed slightly but has maintained a beta-delta magnetic
configuration.  Region 673 (S12E61) is in better view for
observation and, with trailer spots behind a larger lead spot, is in
a beta-gamma configuration.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Regions 672 and 673 may produce C-class flares.  Both regions are
capable of isolated M-class flares as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.  There has been a
slight rise in solar wind speed at ACE since 1600 UTC, to about 550
km/s at the end of the period.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 17 September, from the
effects of increased solar winds from a geoeffective coronal hole. 
Activity should subside for 18-19 September to quiet to unsettled
levels.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 108
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep  110/110/110
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  020/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  015/020-010/015-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/05