:Product: 20040922RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C3.2 flare occurred from
Region 673 (S13W17) at 22/0920Z.  Region 672 (N04, L=351) has
rotated around the west limb.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with minor storming
levels from 1200Z to 1500Z.  Active levels were observed from 1500Z
to 1800Z.  The minor storm levels were attributed to a CME from a
M-class flare on 19 September.  Solar wind speed increased to
approximately 530 km/s from 1850Z to 2045Z.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period
possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 091
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 110
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  008/015-005/010-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05