:Product: 20040923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C1.4 flare was observed off
the west limb at N06.  This event occurred at 23/0800Z and is likely
associated with Region 672 (N04, L=351).  Region 673 (S13W31) is in
a slow decay phase and has produced several B-class flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with two active periods
from 23/0000Z to 23/0600Z.  The active levels followed a period of
southward Bz.  The greater than 2MeV electron flux reached high
levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 090
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep  090/090/090
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  008/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  005/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05