:Product: 20040924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity decreased to very low levels.  Region
673 (S13W44) produced several minor B-class flares.  The largest was
a B5 x-ray flare that occurred at 24/0245Z.  This region exhibits a
simple beta class magnetic structure and is the only spotted active
region reported today.  No new regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.  Region 673 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 089
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  004/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  004/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01