:Product: 20040926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class flares. There are only two spotted
regions on the disk and both are small, stable, and magnetically
simple.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 090
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep  090/090/095
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  005/005-005/008-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05