:Product: 20040927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.   Today's activity
consisted of a few low level B-class flares.  An 8 degree filament
near N08E40 disappeared sometime in the last 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.  The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 090
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  005/008-005/008-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05