:Product: 20041002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low. Region 675 (S09W19), a
small H-type sunspot group, produced a few B-class x-ray flares.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated active
periods.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 088
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  090/095/095
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 111
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  008/012-008/012-005/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05