:Product: 20041004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  03/2100Z
to 04/2100Z:  Solar Activity was low.  A C2.6 flare occurred at
04/1325 UTC from a region on the east limb at S11.  A coronal mass
ejection was associated with this event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a possibility for C-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 091
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  007/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  008/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05