:Product: 20041005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  A C1.4 flare was observed at
05/0056 UTC from a spotless plage region near S11E75.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 091
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  095/100/105
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05