:Product: 20041006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2004 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2004
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  Newly numbered Region 679
(S10E66), a spotless plage region, produced a B9.0 flare at 05/2317
UTC and a C2.5 flare at 06/1834.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 092
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  095/095/095
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 112
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  003/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05